Potential Impact of Indonesia's Increased Alumina Production on China's Alumina Market [[SMM Aluminum Conference]]

On April 16, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo - Alumina and Aluminum Raw Materials Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), SMM Metal Exchange Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., Ding Long, General Manager of the Asia Market Department at Metro Mining Limited, Australia, provided an overview of Metro Mining and shared insights into the potential impact of Indonesia's new alumina production on China's alumina market.

Indonesia's Alumina Capacity and Planning

As of 2025, Indonesia has 11 alumina projects under construction or planned, with a total capacity of 25.5 million mt.

Key Periods: 2024-2025: Approximately 8.5 million mt of new capacity (including production resumptions). After 2025: Over 10 million mt of new capacity is planned.

Regional Distribution and Progress of Indonesia's Alumina Capacity

Key Region: West Kalimantan (accounting for over 60% of planned projects).

Projects with Rapid Progress:

•Mempawah Alumina Refinery (3 million mt, with Phase 1 of 1 million mt commissioned in September 2024).

•Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesia Base: Total alumina capacity has reached 2 million mt (1 million mt each for Phase 1 and Phase 2), with actual production reaching 1.91 million mt in 2023, accounting for 34.9% of the Southeast Asian market share. The new 2 million mt alumina expansion project is progressing as planned and is expected to be commissioned in 2026.

•Jinjiang Group's PT BAP: Total planned capacity of 4.5 million mt/year. Phase 1, a 1 million mt/year alumina refinery, was officially commissioned in January 2025 and is entering the ramp-up stage; Phase 2 (2 million mt/year) is planned to commence in 2026.

•A senior executive from Xinfa revealed that Xinfa is preparing to collaborate with local Indonesian enterprises to build power plants and aluminum enterprises. Feasibility studies are currently underway.

East Hope Group to Invest in Indonesia's Aluminum Industry

Key Region: West Kalimantan (accounting for over 60% of planned projects).

East Hope Group:

Will launch a 6 million mt alumina and 2.4 million mt aluminum project in West Kalimantan, Indonesia.

The 6 million mt alumina project, located in Pontianak, West Kalimantan, will leverage the geographical advantages of being "near the port and near the mine" by constructing its own terminal and power plant, forming a closed-loop system of "bauxite mining - alumina smelting - aluminum production."

The project will adopt the world's most advanced technology to ensure "ultra-low emissions" and green production, creating 3,000-3,500 jobs.

The project will be constructed in three phases, with the first phase of 2 million mt capacity planned for commissioning in 2028. This will directly reduce domestic aluminum enterprises' raw material procurement costs by approximately 15% and mitigate supply chain risks associated with the over-concentration of bauxite sources in Guinea.

Risks and Challenges in Investing in Indonesia's Alumina Industry

Infrastructure Backwardness: Unstable power supply and high logistics and transportation costs in remote mining areas directly affect production efficiency and operating costs.

Environmental Pressures: Stringent government environmental regulations require significant investment in environmental protection facility upgrades, such as waste (e.g., red mud) treatment to meet standards.

Policy and Approval Risks: Projects require approval from both Indonesian and domestic governments, and policy adjustments may lead to project delays or terminations.

Political and Economic Instability: Includes local separatism, exchange rate fluctuations, inflation risks, and policy uncertainties.

Labor Skill Limitations: Alumina production requires skilled workers, but local labor skills are insufficient, and restrictions on foreign labor increase employment costs.

Supply Chain Challenges: Poor management of bauxite mining may lead to supply disruptions, and inefficient logistics affect raw material transportation.

Natural Disaster Risks: Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis may threaten project safety.

Australia Has a Fully Integrated Aluminum Industry

But has surplus bauxite available for export to China.

History of Bauxite Mining on the Weipa Plateau

COMALCO commenced production in Weipa in 1963; signed its first long-term bauxite contract with China from Weipa in 2008; in 2018, Metro established the Hill Alumina Mine 100 km north of Weipa; Weipa Plateau bauxite grade: 50%+ alumina, 8%-12% silica; Metro has 130 million mt of resources; high-alumina bauxite, direct shipping ore; 2025 target to expand to 7 million mt annual production; Metro is Australia's only pure bauxite producer, not producing alumina to compete with its customers in the market.

Northern Australian Bauxite Offers Significant Maritime Advantages

Shipping time to China: 45 days from Guinea compared to 10 days from northern Australia.

Australia's Bauxite Resources

Additionally, it provided an overview of the 2024 alumina market disruptions.

China's Alumina Trade

China's alumina imports are expected to decline. China plays a crucial role in balancing the ROW alumina market. During periods of severe shortages, as seen in 2018, China became a net exporter. After Australia implemented an alumina export ban in 2022, China also increased its alumina exports to Russia.

4-6 mt of bauxite can produce 1 mt of aluminum

Global aluminum demand is expected to grow by approximately 40% by 2030

Aluminum is a key metal for long-term renewable energy generation/storage, electric vehicles, and electrification.

"By 2030, aluminum use in power generation will more than double that of copper" – IEA

The aluminum required for the world's transition to green energy will exceed current power sector consumption by 50%.

Solar PV power generation is expected to double in the next four years. By weight, aluminum accounts for 85% of the materials used in solar panels.

By 2050, wind turbines will require 35 million mt of aluminum annually (4% of materials used).

The EV industry will increase global aluminum consumption by 60% to 31.7 million mt by 2030.

By 2030, China's aluminum consumption is expected to grow by 12.3 million mt to 56.1 million mt (47% of global demand).

Asia (excluding China) aluminum consumption is expected to grow by 8.6 million mt by 2030, with approximately 61% coming from India (35%), the Middle East (19%), and Japan (7%).

Aluminum: Already Essential in Modern Society, "Critical" for Energy Transition Technologies

•Diverse demand for aluminum in the clean energy transition;

•40% growth in aluminum demand from 2020 to 2030;

•3-4% annual growth, higher than potential GDP growth.

The EV industry will increase global aluminum consumption in transportation by 60% to 31.7 million mt by 2030

Aluminum is characterized by its lightweight, corrosion resistance, durability, high strength, low cost, and high electrical conductivity

•It is expected that by 2030, the use of aluminum in European vehicles (both gasoline and electric) will increase from the current 197 kg to 256 kg.

•EVs have a higher aluminum content compared to internal combustion engine vehicles, approximately 30% higher

For example, Tesla's all-aluminum chassis is a notable example.

•By 2030, the global EV fleet is expected to reach 40 million units, a transformation that will revolutionize the automotive industry and significantly boost aluminum demand.

•In EV batteries, aluminum is the second most important metal element, accounting for approximately 20% of the battery by weight.

Aluminum is extensively used in battery components such as the casing, cathode, and current collector.

•EV charging infrastructure will also heavily rely on aluminum for transmission cables, casings, heat sinks, and screw holes.

Introduction to Metro Mining Limited

Since its commissioning in 2018, Metro Mining Limited has become Australia's second major, independent, and reliable bauxite producer, headquartered in Brisbane, Queensland, with mining operations on the Weipa Plateau. Under the leadership of the management team of newly appointed CEO Mr. Simon Wensley in July 2021, this Australian publicly listed firm has established a reputation for timely bauxite supply in the international financial markets, particularly in the Chinese bauxite market.

Metro: Summary and Updates

Despite significant impacts from typhoons, 2023 production and shipments reached a record 4.6 million wet metric tons (WMT).

Total shipments in 2024 reached 5.7 million WMT, an annual record, representing a 24% increase from 2023.

Ikamba demonstrated operational resilience under adverse weather conditions in the second half of December.

The 2025 shipment target is 6.5 million to 7 million WMT.

Production has commenced. The first shipment of bauxite in 2025 began loading on March 20.

Additionally, it provided an overview of Metro's production process, the commissioning of apron feeders and vibrating screens, the commencement of operations at the Ikamba – offshore floating terminal, and the experienced leadership team and board of directors.

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